4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 3 at the 16

Los Angeles Rams 0 – Arizona Cardinals 0

What Actually Happened

(11:11) 92-H.Mevis 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-42-E.Evans.

The Three Options

GO +2.76 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +5.31 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 16, worth -0.23 EP
KICK +1.90 EP
What Happened
  • 95% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.03 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 26, worth -0.64 EP
PUNT +0.31 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.86 EP