Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 16 at the 73

Los Angeles Rams 16 – Arizona Cardinals 6

(13:53) 42-E.Evans punts 64 yards to ARI 9, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 80-S.Sims to ARI 27 for 18 yards (56-S.Dolac).

The Three Options

GO -1.94 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +2.45 EP
66% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 73, worth -4.16 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model