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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 2 at the 22

Los Angeles Rams 13 – Arizona Cardinals 6

What Actually Happened

(:05) 92-H.Mevis 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-42-E.Evans.

The Three Options

GO +1.70 EP
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +2.78 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 22, worth -0.01 EP
KICK +2.68 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.94 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 32, worth -0.07 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model