4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 2 at the 2

Los Angeles Rams 6 – Arizona Cardinals 6

What Actually Happened

(1:26) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 12-P.Nacua for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +3.39 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.67 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 2, worth +0.13 EP
KICK +1.69 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.72 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 21, worth -0.76 EP
PUNT -0.21 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model