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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 16 at the 38

Arizona Cardinals 3 – Los Angeles Rams 6

What Actually Happened

(9:40) 38-C.Ryland 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-39-M.Haack.

The Three Options

GO -0.70 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.21 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 38, worth -2.33 EP
KICK -0.22 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.15 EP
  • 33% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 47, worth -2.96 EP
PUNT -0.80 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.80 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model