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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 13 at the 23

Los Angeles Rams 3 – Arizona Cardinals 3

What Actually Happened

(11:49) 92-H.Mevis 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-42-E.Evans.

The Three Options

GO +1.28 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.33 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 23, worth -0.53 EP
KICK +1.77 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 33, worth -1.15 EP
PUNT +0.26 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model