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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 20 at the 59

Carolina Panthers 3 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7

What Actually Happened

(:28) 6-S.Martin punts 49 yards to TB 10, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 19-K.Johnson. Penalty on TB-58-M.Watts, Defensive Offside, declined.

The Three Options

GO -1.33 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.52 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 59, worth -2.88 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.45 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 18, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model