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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 7 at the 30

Carolina Panthers 20 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20

What Actually Happened

(2:24) 10-R.Fitzgerald 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +0.61 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +3.76 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 30, worth -1.15 EP
KICK +1.16 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 79% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 21% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 40, worth -1.42 EP
PUNT -0.33 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model