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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 17 at the 56

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20 – Carolina Panthers 20

What Actually Happened

(4:57) 9-R.Dixon punts 47 yards to CAR 9, Center-86-E.Deckers. 23-T.Etienne pushed ob at CAR 17 for 8 yards (19-K.Johnson). PENALTY on TB-86-E.Deckers, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CAR 17.

The Three Options

GO -1.16 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.29 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 56, worth -2.72 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.50 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 17, worth -0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model