4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 2 at the 57

Carolina Panthers 3 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10

What Actually Happened

(7:34) 6-S.Martin punts 43 yards to TB 14, Center-44-J.Jansen. 19-K.Johnson to TB 21 for 7 yards (29-A.Evans; 87-B.Tremayne). ** Injury Update: CAR-33-R.Rochell has returned to the game.

The Three Options

GO +0.33 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.48 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 57, worth -2.93 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.81 EP
What Happened
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 17, worth -0.81 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.13 EP