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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 1 at the 56

Indianapolis Colts 27 – San Francisco 49ers 48

What Actually Happened

(2:00) (Shotgun) 15-R.Leonard pass incomplete short left to 9-C.Owen.

The Three Options

GO +0.32 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +1.22 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 56, worth -2.05 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.64 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 17, worth -0.64 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model