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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 4 at the 21

Indianapolis Colts 14 – San Francisco 49ers 24

What Actually Happened

(:21) 10-B.Grupe 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

The Three Options

GO +1.73 EP
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +3.92 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.16 EP
KICK +2.27 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.52 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 31, worth -0.55 EP
PUNT -0.06 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model