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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 2 at the 72

Indianapolis Colts 14 – San Francisco 49ers 21

What Actually Happened

(7:16) 8-R.Sanchez punts 54 yards to SF 18, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 9-S.Moore.

The Three Options

GO -0.26 EP
Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.84 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 72, worth -4.06 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.23 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 30, worth -1.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.96 EP