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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 1 at the 48

San Francisco 49ers 14 – Indianapolis Colts 14

What Actually Happened

(12:39) 13-B.Purdy up the middle to IND 46 for 2 yards (99-D.Buckner).

The Three Options

GO +1.01 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.55 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 48, worth -2.99 EP
KICK -1.26 EP
  • 42% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.18 EP
  • 58% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 49, worth -3.02 EP
PUNT -0.77 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 14, worth -0.77 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model