Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 10 at the 66

Pittsburgh Steelers 3 – Detroit Lions 0

What Actually Happened

(13:41) 3-C.Waitman punts 46 yards to DET 20, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 11-K.Raymond to DET 23 for 3 yards (44-C.Bruener; 40-J.Peppers). PENALTY on PIT-15-B.Skowronek, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced at DET 23.

The Three Options

GO -1.84 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +1.78 EP
65% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 66, worth -3.82 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model