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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 5 at the 5

Pittsburgh Steelers 12 – Detroit Lions 10

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 9-C.Boswell 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-3-C.Waitman.

The Three Options

GO +2.22 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.57 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 5, worth +0.09 EP
KICK +1.58 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.62 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 21, worth -0.77 EP
PUNT -0.02 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.64 EP