Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 10 at the 85

Detroit Lions 3 – Pittsburgh Steelers 3

What Actually Happened

(6:26) 3-J.Fox punts 54 yards to PIT 31, Center-49-H.Hatten, fair catch by 19-C.Austin. PENALTY on PIT-22-A.Samuel, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at PIT 31.

The Three Options

GO -2.30 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +1.42 EP
61% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 85, worth -4.70 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model