Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 11 at the 73

Detroit Lions 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

(13:17) 3-J.Fox punts 53 yards to PIT 20, Center-49-H.Hatten. 19-C.Austin pushed ob at PIT 29 for 9 yards (84-S.Zylstra).

The Three Options

GO -1.65 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +2.62 EP
64% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 73, worth -4.08 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model