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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 11 at the 18

Detroit Lions 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 3

What Actually Happened

(10:13) 39-J.Bates 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.

The Three Options

GO +1.29 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.53 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 18, worth -0.52 EP
KICK +1.71 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 28, worth -1.06 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model