Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 14 at the 76

Washington Commanders 3 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

(6:15) 10-T.Way punts 50 yards to PHI 26, Center-69-T.Ott. 18-B.Covey to PHI 37 for 11 yards (57-N.Bellore).

The Three Options

GO -2.40 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +2.06 EP
71% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 76, worth -4.22 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model