4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 8 at the 78

Philadelphia Eagles 21 – Washington Commanders 10

What Actually Happened

(8:21) 10-B.Mann punts 38 yards to WAS 40, Center-47-C.Hughlett, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.92 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.35 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 78, worth -4.45 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -1.73 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 35, worth -1.73 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model