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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 4 at the 60

Washington Commanders 10 – Philadelphia Eagles 21

What Actually Happened

(9:17) 10-T.Way punts 40 yards to PHI 20, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 18-B.Covey.

The Three Options

GO -0.68 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.17 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 60, worth -3.18 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.80 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 19, worth -0.80 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model