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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 2 at the 2

Washington Commanders 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

What Actually Happened

(11:42) 16-J.Moody 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +3.43 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.96 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 2, worth +0.82 EP
KICK +1.97 EP
What Happened
  • 99% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.00 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 21, worth -0.33 EP
PUNT +0.29 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth +0.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.46 EP