4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 1 at the 2

Washington Commanders 3 – Philadelphia Eagles 7

What Actually Happened

(5:14) 71-A.Wylie reported in as eligible. 36-C.Rodriguez left guard to PHI 1 for 1 yard (53-Z.Baun).

The Three Options

GO +4.11 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.40 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 2, worth +0.33 EP
KICK +1.64 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.67 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 21, worth -0.67 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model