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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 11 at the 25

Philadelphia Eagles 7 – Washington Commanders 3

What Actually Happened

(9:10) 4-J.Elliott 43 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-10-B.Mann.

The Three Options

GO +0.64 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +4.85 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 25, worth -1.34 EP
KICK +0.93 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 87% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.36 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 35, worth -1.94 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model