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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q1
New York Giants
4th & 5 at the 10
New York Giants 0 – Minnesota Vikings 3
What Actually Happened
(5:21) (Shotgun) 6-J.Dart sacked at MIN 15 for -5 yards (61-J.Redmond).
The Three Options
GO
+2.62 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.94 EP
- 59% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 10, worth +0.33 EP
KICK
+1.93 EP
- 97% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.01 EP
- 3% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 21, worth -0.39 EP
PUNT
+0.24 EP
- Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth +0.24 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
