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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 3 at the 12

Minnesota Vikings 13 – New York Giants 13

What Actually Happened

(4:18) 16-W.Reichard 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright.

The Three Options

GO +2.37 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.16 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 12, worth -0.18 EP
KICK +1.86 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.97 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 22, worth -0.58 EP
PUNT -0.13 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.51 EP