Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 5 at the 63

New York Giants 10 – Minnesota Vikings 13

What Actually Happened

(11:15) 12-J.Gillan punts 40 yards to MIN 23, Center-59-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 4-M.Price. PENALTY on MIN-0-I.Pace, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at MIN 23.

The Three Options

GO -0.79 EP

48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.31 EP
52% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 63, worth -3.61 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model