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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 5 at the 5

Los Angeles Rams 0 – Seattle Seahawks 7

What Actually Happened

(1:45) 92-H.Mevis 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-42-E.Evans.

The Three Options

GO +2.07 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.24 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 5, worth -0.07 EP
KICK +1.24 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.28 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 21, worth -1.01 EP
PUNT -0.33 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.83 EP