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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 5 at the 30

Los Angeles Rams 0 – Seattle Seahawks 7

What Actually Happened

(4:26) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 12-P.Nacua to SEA 24 for 6 yards (29-J.Jobe). Penalty on SEA-0-D.Lawrence, Defensive Offside, declined.

The Three Options

GO +0.86 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.15 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 30, worth -1.67 EP
KICK +0.37 EP
  • 75% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.29 EP
  • 25% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 40, worth -2.36 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model