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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 10 at the 51

Los Angeles Rams 30 – Seattle Seahawks 30

What Actually Happened

(:49) 42-E.Evans punts 36 yards to SEA 15, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 22-R.Shaheed.

The Three Options

GO -0.40 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +0.90 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 51, worth -1.10 EP
KICK -0.32 EP
  • 21% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.48 EP
  • 79% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 49, worth -1.08 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 14, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model