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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 8 at the 29

Los Angeles Rams 30 – Seattle Seahawks 30

What Actually Happened

(2:11) 92-H.Mevis 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-42-E.Evans.

The Three Options

GO +0.52 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +3.58 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 29, worth -1.19 EP
KICK +0.97 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 77% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.71 EP
  • 23% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 39, worth -1.52 EP
PUNT -0.39 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model