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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 4 at the 71

Seattle Seahawks 30 – Los Angeles Rams 30

What Actually Happened

(3:25) 4-M.Dickson punts 51 yards to LA 20, Center-41-C.Stoll, fair catch by 19-X.Smith.

The Three Options

GO -1.16 EP
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.18 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 71, worth -3.64 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.03 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 29, worth -1.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model