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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 10 at the 71

Kansas City Chiefs 0 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(14:53) 14-M.Araiza punts 32 yards to TEN 39, Center-41-J.Winchester. 17-C.Dike to TEN 42 for 3 yards (21-J.Hicks).

The Three Options

GO -1.79 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +1.89 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 71, worth -4.11 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.33 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 29, worth -1.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model