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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 17 at the 53

Tennessee Titans 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 0

What Actually Happened

(2:27) 3-J.Hekker punts 47 yards to KC 6, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 81-N.Remigio.

The Three Options

GO -1.28 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.66 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 53, worth -2.81 EP
KICK -1.59 EP
  • 24% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.71 EP
  • 76% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -2.62 EP
PUNT -0.60 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 15, worth -0.60 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model