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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q1
Tennessee Titans
4th & 1 at the 44
Tennessee Titans 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 0
What Actually Happened
(10:18) 1-C.Ward pass incomplete short right to 84-G.Helm.
The Three Options
GO
+1.60 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +3.38 EP
- 33% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 44, worth -1.97 EP
KICK
-0.45 EP
- 45% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.03 EP
- 55% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -2.50 EP
PUNT
+0.17 EP
- Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 12, worth +0.17 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
