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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 9 at the 9

Kansas City Chiefs 6 – Tennessee Titans 16

What Actually Happened

(3:04) 7-H.Butker 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.

The Three Options

GO +1.71 EP
Model's Pick
  • 33% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.44 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 9, worth -0.10 EP
KICK +1.42 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.49 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 21, worth -0.90 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model