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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 1 at the 50

Tennessee Titans 16 – Kansas City Chiefs 6

What Actually Happened

(6:29) (No Huddle) 1-C.Ward up the middle to 50 for no gain (23-D.Tranquill; 97-A.Gillotte).

The Three Options

GO +1.03 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.81 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 50, worth -2.68 EP
KICK -1.32 EP
  • 30% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -2.68 EP
PUNT -0.26 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 14, worth -0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model