Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 12 at the 74

Kansas City Chiefs 0 – Tennessee Titans 0

(12:54) 14-M.Araiza punts 42 yards to TEN 32, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 17-C.Dike.

The Three Options

GO -2.33 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +1.74 EP
64% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 74, worth -4.61 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model