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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 4 at the 36

Kansas City Chiefs 0 – Tennessee Titans 2

What Actually Happened

(7:45) 7-H.Butker 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.

The Three Options

GO +0.83 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.69 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 36, worth -1.94 EP
KICK -0.01 EP
What Happened
  • 66% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.33 EP
  • 34% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 46, worth -2.64 EP
PUNT -0.43 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.85 EP