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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 10 at the 48

Tennessee Titans 2 – Kansas City Chiefs 0

What Actually Happened

(11:50) 3-J.Hekker punts 43 yards to KC 5, Center-46-M.Cox. 81-N.Remigio pushed ob at KC 36 for 31 yards (3-J.Hekker).

The Three Options

GO -0.77 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.43 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 48, worth -2.58 EP
KICK -1.17 EP
  • 35% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.59 EP
  • 65% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -2.64 EP
PUNT -0.54 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 14, worth -0.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model