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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 6 at the 26

Denver Broncos 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(5:15) 3-W.Lutz 44 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw. ** Injury Update: JAX-6-G.Newsome has returned to the game.

The Three Options

GO +1.63 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.73 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 26, worth -0.29 EP
KICK +1.85 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 87% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.33 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 36, worth -1.24 EP
PUNT +0.64 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth +0.64 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model