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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 1 at the 62

Denver Broncos 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(8:07) 73-F.Crum reported in as eligible. 12-R.Harvey right tackle to DEN 39 for 1 yard (23-F.Oluokun; 0-D.Lloyd). Jacksonville challenged the first down ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1.)

The Three Options

GO +0.90 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +2.44 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 62, worth -2.99 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT +0.10 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 21, worth +0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model