Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 10 at the 59

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Denver Broncos 0

(9:53) 9-L.Cooke punts 46 yards to DEN 13, Center-46-R.Matiscik, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.36 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.50 EP
65% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 59, worth -3.41 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model