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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q3
Denver Broncos
4th & 13 at the 53
Denver Broncos 17 – Jacksonville Jaguars 24
What Actually Happened
(6:12) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 53 yards to end zone, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Touchback.
The Three Options
GO
-0.99 EP
-
30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.36 EP
- 70% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 53, worth -2.84 EP
KICK
-1.43 EP
- 28% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
- 72% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 49, worth -2.68 EP
PUNT
-0.43 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
- Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 15, worth -0.43 EP
The Verdict
Chose PUNT
✓ matched the model
