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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 7 at the 7

Tennessee Titans 0 – San Francisco 49ers 7

What Actually Happened

(1:26) 6-J.Slye 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-3-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +1.56 EP
Model's Pick
  • 31% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.25 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 7, worth -0.12 EP
KICK +1.25 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.30 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.99 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.31 EP