Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 4 at the 59

Tennessee Titans 24 – San Francisco 49ers 37

(:16) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass short right to 84-G.Helm to 50 for 9 yards (6-M.Mustapha).

The Three Options

GO -0.18 EP

What Happened

47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +0.35 EP
53% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 59, worth -0.64 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

Chose GO ✓ matched the model