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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q4
Tennessee Titans
4th & 1 at the 8
Tennessee Titans 17 – San Francisco 49ers 34
What Actually Happened
(6:12) 1-C.Ward up the middle to SF 6 for 2 yards (99-C.West).
The Three Options
GO
+3.52 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
63% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.38 EP
- 37% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 8, worth +0.34 EP
KICK
+1.95 EP
- 98% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.01 EP
- 2% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.35 EP
PUNT
+0.26 EP
- San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.26 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
