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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 11 at the 19

San Francisco 49ers 31 – Tennessee Titans 17

What Actually Happened

(9:32) 18-E.Pineiro 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-7-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +0.73 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.28 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 19, worth -1.28 EP
KICK +0.95 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.16 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 29, worth -1.82 EP
PUNT -0.84 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.84 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model