Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 15 at the 70

Tennessee Titans 10 – San Francisco 49ers 31

(:23) 3-J.Hekker punts 44 yards to SF 26, Center-46-M.Cox. 9-S.Moore to SF 44 for 18 yards (48-J.Bachie; 3-J.Hekker).

The Three Options

GO -2.00 EP

27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.98 EP
73% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 70, worth -3.87 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model